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prof. dr. Roger Guesnerie

prof. dr. Roger Guesnerie

Highly acclaimed French and European economist and advisor to the French government
Languages : English, French

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    • Climate Change
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    • Crisis Management
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  • Greenhouse effects associated to the economy
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Prof. dr. Roger Guesnerie is currently holding the 'Economy Theory and Social Organization' Chair at the College de France, is director of studies at the EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales) and is Chairman of the Board of the Paris School of Economics. Prof. dr. Guesnerie's research focuses on public economics, social insurance, redistribution, and more recently on the expectation failures underlying economic crisis and the design of climate policies. Along an

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Prof. dr. Roger Guesnerie is currently holding the 'Economy Theory and Social Organization' Chair at the College de France, is director of studies at the EHESS (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales) and is Chairman of the Board of the Paris School of Economics. Prof. dr. Guesnerie's research focuses on public economics, social insurance, redistribution, and more recently on the expectation failures underlying economic crisis and the design of climate policies. Along an impressive career, he has lectured for example at Ecole Polytechnique, the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, Harvard, University of Pennsylvania, Churchil College and the LSE (London School of Economics). Prof. dr. Guesnerie has authored or co-authored many Economic Policy reports. Among the recent reports are: 'The economic stakes of the greenhouse effect' and 'Competition Policy', both for the French Council of Economic Analysis advising the Prime Minister. Other items include : 'Research and Sustainable Development' and 'Cost-Benefit Analysis and Resorption of Economic Imbalances' for other bodies of the French Government. Beside his research and lecturing is prof. dr. Guesnerie a scientific committee member of the Journal of Public Economic Theory, Macroeconomic Dynamics, the New Palgrave Dictionary… In the past, he held a number of editorial positions, including co-Editor of Econometrica and associate editor of many scientific journals like the 'Review of Economic Studies'. He has also written for a general audience a broadly praised book, 'l'économie de marché'. Prof. dr. Guesnerie has received a number of scientific honors, among which the Silver Medal of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, (National Scientific Research Centre", CNRS) received in 1993. He has been made Chevalier de l'Ordre National du Mérite (The National Order of Merit) in 1987, and the Chevalier de la Legion d'Honneur (National Order of the Legion of Honor) in 2006. Prof. dr. Guesnerie is condemned for his unique and groundbreaking perspective on economy.

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PARIS-JOURDAN SCIENCES ECONOMIQUES, WORKING PAPER N° 2006 - 11

The design of post-Kyoto climate schemes:
Selected questions in analytical perspective

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DELTA, WORKING PAPER N° 2000-22

From the "three-goods" macroeconomic model to the
"(n+2)-goods" model: an Exploration of the Robustness
of the analysis of Expectational Eductive Coordination

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Cover van Assessing Rational Expectations

Assessing Rational Expectations

Title:
Assessing Rational Expectations
 
Subtitle:
Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations
 
Author:
Roger Guesnerie
 
Publisher:
The MIT Press
 
Book:
343 pages
 
ISBN:
978-02-620-7207-6
 

In this book Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). He focuses on themultiplicity question that arises in (infinite horizon) Rational Expectation models and considers the implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. The REH, which dominates the economic modeling of expectations in most fields of formalized economic theory, is often associated with an optimistic view of the working of the markets--a view that Guesnerie scrutinizes closely.

The book is divided into four parts. The first part uses the framework of simple models to characterize the stochastic processes that trigger self-fulfilling prophecies and examines the connections between periodic equilibria (cycles) and stochastic equilibria (sunspots). (A sunspot is a random shock uncorrelated with underlying economic fundamentals.) The second part views sunspot equilibria as overreactions triggered by small variations of intrinsic variables--rather than as fluctuations with no trigger--and looks at the consequences for a monetary theory à la Lucas. The third part develops the basic theory to encompass more complex, multidimensional systems. It focuses in particular on the special class of equilibria generating small fluctuations around a steady state. Broadening the scope, the fourth part looks at the stability of cycles, sunspots in systems with memory, and current research on rational expectations.

Cover van Assessing Rational Expectations 2

Assessing Rational Expectations 2

Title:
Assessing Rational Expectations 2
 
Subtitle:
"Eductive" Stability in Economics
 
Author:
Roger Guesnerie
 
Publisher:
The MIT Press
 
Book:
483 pages
 
ISBN:
978-02-620-7258-8
 

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure.

Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.